Research of marine ferry systems based on discretization pf processes and simulation ferry market based on CIRCOS intensity graph

Abstract

There has been a significant increase in the role of sea ferry services today as well as a significant increase in the number of ferry vessels and passenger flow, which requires the development of new practical forecasting methods. The article proposes a new approach to forecasting, which is based on the integrated interaction of the systems «passenger sea port-cruise or ferry lines». This research focused on the regions of the Adriatic and the Baltic Sea and the existing network of cruise and ferry line routes. When studying this system, it was justified to use a new mathematical model based on practical simulation and models of the theory of discrete processes and systems. The proposed model is complemented by a discretization-based study based on the Kotelnikov´s theorem. To reflect the dynamics of changes in such a system, it is proposed to use new diagrams of the intensity represented by circos graphs (diagrams). The article discusses the practical importance of using new circos intensity graphs of sections to study the operation of the «marine terminal-cruise line or ferry line» systems based on real data on the Baltic and Adriatic seas. Based on the simulation results, a new system of corrective actions is proposed to improve the management of marine terminals. It presents new results which can increase the accuracy of the planning and decision-making process in predicting and planning the route network based on the research of passenger traffic between the «sea terminal-cruise line or ferry line» systems.