Developing, representing, and using theories of change for interventions in complex systems

Abstract

Theories of change for interventions in complex systems present a challenge for usual approaches to developing, representing, and using theories of change. Interventions in complex systems operate under conditions of ongoing uncertainty, not because of a lack of information but because of three features that contribute to this uncertainty: (1) numerous, diverse, and interacting components; (2) nonlinear relationships; and (3) changes brought about through self-organisation, agency, adaptation, and learning. In such situations, a different approach is needed to theories of change. Their primary intended use needs to be supporting ongoing single-loop and double-loop learning and adaptation by the various actors involved, rather than monitoring compliance with an initial plan. The underlying change theories need to be appropriate for managing complex systems-for example, focusing on developing an effective network of actors, creating an enabling environment, and supporting iterations of learning and adaptation rather than planning tightly prescribed implementation of ‘what works’.