Region and forecasting of banana commodity in seroja agropolitan area lumajang

Abstract

Banana commodity has a crucial role in supporting the economic growth of Lumajang Regency, especially in Seroja Agropolitan Area. One aspect that must be observed in the development of banana commodity is how to pay attention to regional conditions, bearing in mind that each region has different characteristics. The objectives of this study are to find out that Seroja, the Agropolitan area, is a banana commodity production base area and the forecast of banana commodity production in the next five years. The locations of the study are Senduro and Pasrujambe Subdistricts, with the consideration that the sub-district is the Seroja Agropolitan area Lumajang Regency. The research method applies an analytical approach. The data collection method uses secondary data, in which the available statistical data has been published by BPS. The data analysis method used is base and non-base sector analysis Location Quotient and Box-Jenkins Model (ARIMA) analysis. The results show that out of 21 districts in Lumajang Regency there are Pasrujambe and Senduro. The LQ value of Pasrujambe is 2.02 and Senduro is 2.01. This means that Pasrujambe and Senduro Subdistricts in the Seroja Agropolitan Area are centers of banana potential and must be managed as continuously as possible. The banana production forecast for 2018-2027 tends to be constant and decrease. This is consistent with the previous year of fluctuating production data and tends to decline.