Multi-Scenario Prediction of Landscape Ecological Risk in the Sichuan-Yunnan Ecological Barrier Based on Terrain Gradients

Abstract

Land use changes induced by human activities change landscape patterns and ecological processes, threatening regional and global ecosystems. Terrain gradient and anthropogenic multi-policy regulation can have a pronounced effect on landscape components. Forecasting the changing trend of landscape ecological risk (LER) is important for national ecological security and regional sustainability. The present study assessed changes in LER in the Sichuan-Yunnan Ecological Barrier over a 20-year period using land use data from 2000, 2010, and 2020. The enhanced Markov-PLUS (patch-generating land use simulation) model was used to predict and analyze the spatial distribution pattern of LER under the following three scenarios. These were business-as-usual (BAU), urban development and construction (UDC), and ecological development priority (EDP) in 2030. The influence of terrain conditions on LER was also explored. The results showed that over the past 20 years, the LER index increased and then decreased and was dominated by medium and low risk, accounting for more than 70% of the total risk-rated area. The highest and higher risk areas for the three future scenarios have increased in spatial extent. The UDC scenario showed the largest increase of 3341.13 km2 and 2684.85 km2, respectively. The highest-risk level has a strong selectivity for low gradients, with high-level risks more likely to occur at low gradients. The response of ecological risk to gradient changes shows a positive correlation distribution for high-gradient areas and a negative correlation distribution for low-gradient areas. The influence of future topographic gradient changes on LER remains significant. The value of multiscale geographically weighted regression (MGWR) for identifying the spatial heterogeneity of terrain gradient and LER is highlighted. It can play an important role in the formulation of scientific solutions for LER prevention and of an ecological conservation policy for mountainous areas with complex terrain.