Assessing Coastal Flood Susceptibility in East Java, Indonesia: Comparison of Statistical Bivariate and Machine Learning Techniques

Abstract

Floods in coastal areas occur yearly in Indonesia, resulting in socio-economic losses. The availability of flood susceptibility maps is essential for flood mitigation. This study aimed to explore four different types of models, namely, frequency ratio (FR), weight of evidence (WofE), random forest (RF), and multi-layer perceptron (MLP), for coastal flood susceptibility assessment in Pasuruan and Probolinggo in the East Java region. Factors were selected based on multi-collinearity and the information gain ratio to build flood susceptibility maps in small watersheds. The comprehensive exploration result showed that seven of the eleven factors, namely, elevation, geology, soil type, land use, rainfall, RD, and TWI, influenced the coastal flood susceptibility. The MLP outperformed the other three models, with an accuracy of 0.977. Assessing flood susceptibility with those four methods can guide flood mitigation management.