Urban Ecological Security Assessment Framework and Its Driving Mechanism—A Case Study of Anhui Province

Abstract

As a key part of the Yangtze River Economic Belt and an ecological barrier in East China, Anhui province plays a vital role in regional sustainability, economic transformation, and ecological stability. However, there are still certain limitations in accurately identifying key driving factors. This study develops a novel assessment framework based on an improved three-dimensional ecological footprint (EF3D) model, introducing the Ecological Security Spatial Index (ESSI) to evaluate trends from 2004 to 2023. It also explores the synergy between ecological security and economic resilience and applies machine learning to identify key drivers. Results show that ESSI followed a rise-then-decline pattern, peaking at 12.58 in 2013 before falling to 10.66 in 2023, indicating enhanced ecological resilience. Since 2013, ecological security and economic resilience have exhibited a positive synergy, evolving from weak decoupling to strong negative coupling, and then to strong decoupling. Economic factors, particularly GDP (0.68), secondary industry value-added (0.67), green coverage (0.61), and energy consumption (0.60), emerged as the most influential drivers, impacting high-sustainability cities such as Hefei, Bozhou, Wuhu, and Chuzhou. This study establishes a new urban ecological security framework, offering insights for policymakers to drive sustainable transitions and optimize ecological governance.