Analysis of emergent fault element behavior in Virtual California

Abstract

The Virtual California simulation tool can be used to study fault and stress interaction scenarios for realistic California earthquakes and produces a large data set, which is ideally suited for statistical analysis. As with any complex system, it can produce emergent phenomena unexpected by its designers; these can be studied in order to gain insight into real world geophysical phenomena. We have developed a statistical method to analyze Virtual California data that enables us to determine the correlation relationships between the simulated fault elements. We present the results of this analysis of 40 000 years of data for 59 faults (639 elements). We focus on five specific cases that display noteworthy behavior that includes long-range fault interactions, activation-quiescence, and complex small-scale interactions. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.