Enhancing Joint Probability of Maxima Method Through ENSO Integration: A Case Study of Annapolis, Maryland

Abstract

This study advances coastal flood risk assessment by incorporating El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phase information into the Joint Probability of Maxima Method (ENSO-JPMM) for extreme water level prediction in Annapolis, MD. Using data from GLOSS/Extended Sea 135 Level Analysis Version 3 (GESLA-3) dataset and water level records from 1950–2021, we demonstrate that ENSO phases significantly affects flood risk probabilities through their influence on mean sea level, astronomical tides, and skew surge components. We introduce an enhanced JPMM framework that employs phase-specific scaling factors and vertical offsets derived from historical observations, with El Niño conditions associated with higher mean water levels (0.433 m) compared to La Niña (0.403 m) and Neutral phases (0.409 m). The ENSO-JPMM demonstrates improved predictive accuracy across all phases, with root mean square error reductions of up to 5.96% during Neutral conditions and 3.56% during El Niño phases. By implementing a detailed methodology for mean sea level estimation and skew surge analysis, our approach provides a more detailed framework for separating tidal and non-tidal components while accounting for climate variability. The results indicate that traditional extreme value analyses may underestimate flood risks by failing to account for ENSO-driven variability, which can modulate mean water levels by up to 3.0 cm in Annapolis. This research provides insight for coastal infrastructure planning and flood risk management, particularly as climate change potentially alters ENSO characteristics and their influence on extreme water levels. The methodology presented here, while specific to Annapolis MD, can be adapted for other coastal regions to improve flood risk assessments and enhance community resilience planning.