Environmental and Sociological Factors Associated with the Incidence of West Nile Virus Cases in the Northern San Joaquin Valley of California, 2011-2015

Abstract

Environmental and socioeconomic risk factors associated with the incidence of human West Nile virus (WNV) cases were investigated in the Northern San Joaquin Valley region of California, a largely rural area. The study included human WNV cases from the years 2011 to 2015 in the three-county area of San Joaquin, Stanislaus, and Merced Counties, and used census tracts as the unit of analysis. Environmental factors included temperature, precipitation, and WNV-positive mosquito pools. Socioeconomic variables included age, housing age, housing foreclosures, median income, and ethnicity. Chi-square independence tests were used to examine whether each variable was associated with the incidence of WNV cases using data from the three counties combined. In addition, negative binomial regression revealed that the environmental factors of temperature and precipitation were the strongest predictors of the incidence of human WNV cases, while the socioeconomic factor of ethnicity was a significant predictor as well, and is a factor to consider in prevention efforts. Source reduction of mosquito breeding sites and targeted prevention and education remain key in reducing the risk associated with WNV.