MODELLING THE EFFECT OF SOCIAL DISTANCING ON THE SPREAD OF COVID-19

Abstract

The highly contagious infectious disease COVID-19 virus has spread around the world infecting millions of people with high number of deaths, causing profound health, social and economic distress around the world. Mathematical models can provide new insights into the transmission dynamics of the virus and suggest criteria for the design of efficient control strategies. In this work, we use epidemiological modelling to assess the effect of physical distancing measures on the spread of the virus. The mathematical model describing the epidemic progression includes COVID-19 treatment and vaccination. The numerical resolution of the model shows its suitability for describing the Tunisian COVID-19 outbreak. We show the impact of application of social distancing measures with and without vaccination on the epidemic peak. We found that vaccination against COVID-19 is crucial in controlling the virus, but it is important to back this up with social control measures.