Simulation of Vesuvius volcanic ash hazards within Romanian airspace using the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory Volcanic Ash numerical model

Abstract

The goal of this article is to investigate how the Romanian air space would be affected by a potential large eruption of Vesuvius volcano. In order to characterize the potential impact of such an event on the Romanian air space, we simulated the ash plume transport from a hypothetical explosive eruption with a significant magnitude, that is, Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI 4). The volcanic ash cloud transport towards Romania was described by using the mass distribution from the HYbrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) for Volcanic Ash numerical model. To assess the dominant air circulation types, an adaptation of the WetterLagenKlassification (WLK) classification scheme was used. The results emphasized that a long-wave trough and southwesterly flow in upper levels would favour the direct transport of volcanic ash cloud towards the Romanian air space. Non-negative matrix factorization method has been used to identify the atmospheric layer with the maximum values of mass. The simulation results reveal that the maximum values of averaged mass were obtained at an altitude around 7 km.