Applying a graphical method in evaluation of empirical methods for estimating time of concentration in an arid region

Abstract

At gauged watersheds, the time of concentration can be estimated using rainfall-runoff data; however, at ungauged watersheds, empirical methods are used instead. Large errors in the application of empirical methods may cause inaccurate modeling of floods and unreliable structure design. In this paper, methods for calculating the time of concentration (Tc) were compared to identify the best equation for estimating Tc in ungauged watersheds of an arid region. The graphical method, based on measured data, was compared to 15 empirical methods to determine which empirical method returned the best results. The graphical method was applied to 33 rainfall-runoff events in four rural sub-watersheds located in the central parts of Hormozgan province, Iran. A ranking-based procedure was used to select the best performing empirical methods. To minimize bias and improve accuracy, the best performing empirical methods were modified by adjusting their formulas. According to the study, three empirical methods: (1) Williams, (2) Pilgrim and Mac Dermott, and (3) Arizona DOT, performed the best in the study areas. The results also showed that the modified Williams and Arizona DOT’s formulas were able to estimate the time of concentration in ungauged watersheds with an error lower than 1%.