Estimation for Residual Amount of Fossile Energy Resources — Based on Longrange Prospect of Population Growth —

Abstract

In the previously published paper, the auther presented a method to derive longrange prospect of world energy demand from prospect of population growth. In this article, relation between energy consumption of 21 century derived from prospect of population and fossile energy resources are discussed. As the results, in 2030s petroleum and in 2050s natural gas will be consumed so far as present energy consuming pattern is kept. Further if at 2000 supply of petloleum, at 2010 natural gas and coal reach to maximum, and the level of supply of these resouces are kept, life of petroleum and natural gas are elongated about 20 years respectly. On the other hand, very large amount of primary electricity which are composed mainly nonconsumable resources will be required and amount of such primary electricity will be 1.5 × 1012TCE (ton coal equivalent) in 21 century. © 1995, The Japan Institute of Energy. All rights reserved.