Bayesian network assessment method for civil aviation safety based on flight delays

Abstract

Flight delays and safety are the principal contradictions in the sound development of civil aviation. Flight delays often come up and induce civil aviation safety risk simultaneously. Based on flight delays, the random characteristics of civil aviation safety risk are analyzed. Flight delays have been deemed to a potential safety hazard. The change rules and characteristics of civil aviation safety risk based on flight delays have been analyzed. Bayesian networks (BN) have been used to build the aviation operation safety assessment model based on flight delay. The structure and parameters learning of the model have been researched. By using BN model, some airline in China has been selected to assess safety risk of civil aviation. The civil aviation safety risk of BN model has been assessed by GeNIe software. The research results show that flight delay, which increases the safety risk of civil aviation, can be seen as incremental safety risk. The effectiveness and correctness of the model have been tested and verified. © 2013 Huawei Wang and Jun Gao.