Beyond the COVID-19 crisis: A research note on post-pandemic scenarios for South Tyrol 2030+

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has hit societies all around the globe, with tremendous consequences. Beyond its impact on individual and public health, the ensuing crisis has also accentuated existing social and economic problems and, in many cases, exacerbated them. In this context, a central question arises: How can societies be better prepared for the future? This research note presents an example of strategic foresight as an instrument for better understanding systemic challenges, anticipating the emergent risks and opportunities and informing future-proof decision-making. More specifically, it reflects central insights of a regional foresight project that aimed at exploring development pathways of the Italian province South Tyrol for the next 10 years and beyond (2030+). Delineating four plausible, equivalent and consistent scenarios and their entailed challenges, risks and opportunities for South Tyrol, the project offers a future-oriented policy instrument for political, economic and civil actors and key stakeholders. Instead of a classic empirical outlet, the article is prepared as a research note that, beyond sketching the scenarios, shares the project experiences, lessons learned, challenges and success factors for other future regional foresight endeavors.