The association between COVID-19 cases and deaths and web-based public inquiries

Abstract

Background: Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) emerged in December 2019 and rapidly spread globally. Since there is still no specific treatment available, prevention of disease spread is crucial to manage the pandemic. Adequate public information is very important. To assess the optimal timing, the aim of this study was to investigate the association between web-based interest and new cases and deaths due to COVID-19. Methods: Web-based interest for queries related to ‘coronavirus’ was assessed between 1 January and 19 June 2020, using Google Trends in Australia, Brazil, Canada, Germany, Italy, South Africa, South Korea, Spain, United Kingdom, and the United States of America. Reliability analysis of the used search terms was performed using the intraclass correlation coefficient. To investigate the association between web-based interest and new COVID-19 cases or deaths, the relative search volume was analysed for correlation with new cases and deaths. Results: Reliability analysis revealed excellent reliability for COVID-19 search terms in all countries. Web-based interest peaked between 23 February and 5 April 2020, which was prior to the peak of new infections and deaths in most included countries. There was a moderate to strong correlation between COVID-19 related queries and new cases or new deaths. Conclusion: Web-based interest in COVID-19 peaked prior to the peak of new infections and deaths in most countries included. Thus, monitoring public interest via Google Trends might be useful to select the optimal-timing of web-based disease-specific information and preventive measures.