Model Selection in Generalized Linear Models

Abstract

The problem of model selection in regression analysis through the use of forward selection, backward elimination, and stepwise selection has been well explored in the literature. The main assumption in this, of course, is that the data are normally distributed and the main tool used here is either a t test or an F test. However, the properties of these model selection procedures are not well-known. The purpose of this paper is to study the properties of these procedures within generalized linear regression models, considering the normal linear regression model as a special case. The main tool that is being used is the score test. However, the F test and other large sample tests, such as the likelihood ratio and the Wald test, the AIC, and the BIC, are included for the comparison. A systematic study, through simulations, of the properties of this procedure was conducted, in terms of level and power, for symmetric and asymmetric distributions, such as normal, Poisson, and binomial regression models. Extensions for skewed distributions, over-dispersed Poisson (the negative binomial), and over-dispersed binomial (the beta-binomial) regression models, are also given and evaluated. The methods are applied to analyze two health datasets.