Ecological niche modeling of schinus molle reveals the risk of invasive species expansion into biodiversity hotspots

Abstract

Invasive species need a closer look on the threats they may cause to the environment, mainly considering the scenario of climatic changes predicted for the next decades. Schinus molle is a pioneer tree native from South America, reported as an important invasive species in four continents. Using ecological niche modeling we show that a wide area over the world is propitious for S. molle establishment under current climatic conditions, including 14 of the 25 world’s biodiversity hotspots. Current projections of climate changes suggest scenarios implying the rise of areas favorable for S. molle expansion. Therefore, particular attention should be taken in regions where it was introduced, while approaches for long-term intervention may be necessary for regions of S. molle natural occurrence if its expansion threatens other native species. However, the natural dynamic of the ecosystems should be studied and contemplated in such regions.