Statistical analysis of somatic cell scores via mixed model methodology for longitudinal data

Abstract

The aim of this study was to analyze somatic cell counts which is an indirect criterion. to assess susceptibility to mastitis. Data analyzed were weekly records (6448 somatic cell scores) out of 159 primiparous Holsteins and Holsteins x Normande cows raised at the INRA" Le Pin au Haras" experimental farm, France. Given the longitudinal structure of this data set, the analysis consists of modeling both the mean and the individual profiles. This was achieved via the use of mixed models including fixed effects for the average profiles and random effects for the adjusted individual profiles. As far as fixed effects are concerned, the main issue is to fit a time trend to the average profiles. For this, we employed the technique of fractional polynomials described in Royston and Altman (Appl. Stat. 43 (1994) 429-467) under several variance-covariance structures. The best second degree polynomial involved an intercept plus the time at the power (-1/3) (i.e., t-1/3) plus the latter times the logarithm of the time (i.e., t-1/3 x log (t)). Regarding random effects, model comparisons involved random coefficient models, exponential stationary stochastic processes and heterogeneous variances. The models that simultaneously included all these three structures turned out to be the best. For instance, random coefficient models did not fit the variance function well, even when the degree of the polynomial was high. This phenomenon partly justified the introduction of heteroskedastic models.