Leveraging local ancestry and cross-ancestry genetic architecture to improve genetic prediction of complex traits in admixed populations

Abstract

The broader application of polygenic risk score (PRS) is hindered by the limited transferability of PRS developed in Europeans to non-European populations. While many statistical methods have been developed to improve the performance of PRS in non-European populations, most of them focused on discrete genetic ancestry clusters and did not consider admixed individuals. Admixed individuals pose a unique challenge for PRS calculation due to the complexity of local ancestry and cross-ancestry effect sizes. Here, we present a statistical method called SDPR_admix for calculating PRS in admixed individuals. SDPR_admix characterizes the joint distribution of the effect sizes of a genetic variant with two ancestries to be both zero, ancestry enriched, or shared with correlation. SDPR_admix outperformed other methods in simulations and improved the prediction of real traits in European-African admixed individuals in UK Biobank when trained on the Population Architecture using Genomics and Epidemiology (PAGE) dataset (N = 13,000). Deployment of SDPR_admix on All of Us (N = 52,000) further increased the prediction accuracy by approximately 5-fold on average compared with training on PAGE. This enhancement was achieved with manageable computational time and cost, demonstrating the feasibility of training PRS models on large-scale All of Us data. We provided several examples demonstrating that both ancestral-enriched and shared effects, as included in the SDPR_admix prediction model, are helpful for improving polygenic prediction in admixed populations. We also applied SDPR_admix to construct PRS for admixed Americans with mixture of European and Amerindigenous ancestries and showed that SDPR_admix overall outperformed other methods.