Extreme heat vulnerability assessment in Indonesia at the provincial level

Abstract

Over the last decade, the inevitable rise in temperature has resulted in more extreme heat events in Indonesia, despite very little research being conducted to investigate the heat-related vulnerability of the exposed population. The extreme heat vulnerability index (EHVI) was evaluated in this study to identify the most vulnerable districts to extreme heat events. We used both physical and sociodemographic to assess exposure, population sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. A multivariate analysis was applied from eight indicators to determine the extreme heat vulnerability in the chosen region, namely North Sumatra, East Java and Bali. The EHVI was computed by adding the normalized heat indicators and factor scores from the multivariate analysis. Our findings show that the most vulnerable populations are concentrated in the urban and coastal regions. The sources of vulnerability differed among the selected areas, with urbanization and population density increasing vulnerability in urban areas. These findings are helpful in identifying districts vulnerable to extreme heat and assisting regulatory bodies in developing effective adaptation and preparedness strategies to increase population resilience to excessive heat.