The Role of Climate in Ignition Frequency

Abstract

Many fire management agencies aim to detect and suppress all ignitions within their jurisdiction and may benefit from understanding the causes of year-to-year variation. Ignition variation is likely to be associated with climatically driven changes in fuel quantity or moisture in landscapes where ignition sources vary little over similar temporal scales. We assessed how monthly ignitions varied in south-eastern Australia in response to climate anomalies over approximately nine years. Once accounting for seasonal effects, ignitions increased with temperature and vapour pressure deficit anomalies and decreased with precipitation anomalies. These findings indicate that climatic conditions play a role in limiting ignition frequency via effects on fuel moisture. Our models predicted that warmer and drier conditions during our study caused considerable increases in ignition frequency compared to the long-term average reference period (1961–1990). Like many fire-prone landscapes around the world, our study area is projected to become hotter and drier because of climate change. Fire management agencies will need to improve fire detection and suppression capabilities under a future climate.