EXPRESS: The No-Hunger Games: How GLP-1 Medication Adoption is Changing Consumer Food Demand

Abstract

The authors examine how consumers modify their food purchases after adopting appetite-suppressing GLP-1 receptor agonists, such as Ozempic and Wegovy. Using survey responses on medication adoption linked to transaction data from a representative U.S. household panel, the authors document the prevalence, motivations, and demographic patterns of GLP-1 adoption. Households with at least one GLP-1 user reduce grocery spending by 5.3% within six months of adoption, with higher-income households reducing spending by 8.2%. While most food categories see spending declines, the largest reductions are concentrated in calorie-dense, processed categories, including a 10.1% decline in savory snacks. In contrast, a small set of categories show directionally positive changes, with yogurt experiencing the largest increase. Results show an 8.0% decline in spending at fast-food chains, coffee shops, and limited-service restaurants. These food demand adjustments persist through the first year of medication use, though with some attenuation after six months. Households discontinuing GLP-1s revert toward their pre-adoption grocery spending and shift toward slightly less healthy grocery baskets compared to their original baseline. These findings highlight the potential for GLP-1 medications to significantly change consumer food demand, a trend with increasingly important implications for the food industry as GLP-1 adoption continues to grow.