Validation of newly derived polygenic risk scores for dementia in a prospective study of older individuals

Abstract

INTRODUCTION: Recent genome-wide association studies identified new dementia-associated variants. We assessed the performance of updated polygenic risk scores (PRSs) using these variants in an independent cohort. METHODS: We used Cox models and area under the curve (AUC) to validate new PRSs (PRS-83SNP, PRS-SBayesR, and PRS-CS) compared with an older PRS-23SNP in 12,031 initially-healthy participants ≥70 years of age. Dementia was rigorously adjudicated according to Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fourth Edition (DSM-IV) criteria. RESULTS: PRS-83SNP, PRS-SBayesR, and PRS-CS were associated with incident dementia, with fully adjusted (including apolipoprotein E [APOE] ε4) hazard ratios per standard deviation (SD) of 1.35 (1.23–1.47), 1.37 (1.25–1.50), and 1.42 (1.30–1.56), respectively. The AUC of a model containing conventional/non-genetic factors and APOE was 74.7%. This was improved to 75.7% (p = 0.007), 76% (p = 0.004), and 76.1% (p = 0.003) with addition of PRS-83SNP, PRS-SBayesR, and PRS-CS, respectively. The PRS-23SNP did not improve AUC (74.7%, p = 0.95). CONCLUSION: New PRSs for dementia significantly improve risk-prediction performance, but still account for less risk than APOE genotype overall.