Effect of trade liberalization on ASEAN-China exports: A gravity model approach

Abstract

This study aimed to analyze the impact of trade liberalization between ASEAN and China on ASEAN and China export using the gravity models approach. The liberalization of trade openness is measured by the ratio of the total exports of ASEAN countries and China. The data used are annual panel data consisting of the ten ASEAN member countries and US states from 2010 to 2021. The difference with previous research is the object of research which analyzes specifically related to the free trade agreement carried out between ASEAN member countries and China which is analyzed using the Gravity model. The results of the estimation ASEAN models is the variable openness ASEAN countries against the China positive influence on ASEAN exports. China openness toward ASEAN variables did not significantly affect ASEAN exports. Results of the estimation China model shows the openness variable ASEAN against US no effect on China exports. Variable China openness toward ASEAN positive effect on China exports. Of the two models of the estimated proved that trade liberalization ASEAN - China influence on ASEAN exports and China exports.  The implication of the study in free trade agreement that ASEAN countries is more focused on the sector of agriculture product, food, textile and some extractive industries. The results of the estimation ASEAN models is the variable openness ASEAN countries against the China positive influence on ASEAN exports. China openness toward ASEAN variables did not significantly affect ASEAN exports. Results of the estimation China model shows the openness variable ASEAN against US no effect on China exports. Variable China openness toward ASEAN positive effect on China exports. Of the two models of the estimated proved that trade liberalization ASEAN - China influence on ASEAN exports and China exports