The impact of real effective exchange rate volatility on trade balance in Vietnam

Abstract

The study is conducted to examine the impact of real effective exchange rate volatility on the trade balance in Vietnam from 2002 to 2019 by using the VAR (vector autoregression) model. The volatility of real effective exchange rate is calculated through the GARCH (1,1) model based on the quarterly data (collected by Bruegel, Europe) of the Vietnamese currency with 143 major trading partners of Vietnam. The research result shows that the current trade balance was negatively affected by the volatility of the past trade balance with the lag from 1 quarter to 4 quarters. Especially, the study finds that the volatility of real effective exchange rate with the lag of 2 reduced the trade balance in Vietnam. This is the particularity of Vietnam – a country pursuing a floating exchange rate policy under the control of the government.