Associations between meteorological factors and visceral leishmaniasis outbreaks in Jiashi county, Xinjiang uygur autonomous region, China, 2005-2015

Abstract

Although visceral leishmaniasis disease is controlled overall in China, it remains a serious public health problem and remains fundamentally uncontrolled in Jiashi County, Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region. During 2005-2015, there were two outbreaks in Jiashi County. Assessing the influence of meteorological factors on visceral leishmaniasis incidence is essential for its monitoring and control. In this study, we applied generalized estimating equations to assess the impact of meteorological factors on visceral leishmaniasis risk from 2005 to 2015. We also compared meteorological factors among years with Kruskal-Wallis test to explore possible reasons behind the two outbreaks that occurred during our study period. We found that temperature and relative humidity had very significant associations with visceral leishmaniasis risk and there were interactions between these factors. Increasing temperature or decreasing relative humidity could increase the risk of visceral leishmaniasis events. The outbreaks investigated might have been related to low relative humidity and high temperatures. Our findings will support the rationale for visceral leishmaniasis control in China.