Dissertation title: decoupling analysis of building carbon emissions and economic growth based on Tapio model and EKC curve

Abstract

Background: China is a major carbon emitter in the construction industry and the world’s second-largest economy. Clarifying the scientific relationship between carbon emissions and economic development has prominence realistic meaning for China and even other developing countries to carry out more effective carbon emission reduction work in the construction industry. Results: This study combines the Tapio decoupling model, EKC theory and grey correlation analysis to study the relationship between carbon emissions and total output value of the construction industry in thirty provinces of China. The results show that most areas of central and eastern China have basically achieved weak decoupling, while other regions are not stable enough. In addition, in 2022, 18 regions meet the inverted U-shaped curve, and the overall is on an upward trend; Beijing, Hebei and Sichuan have passed the peak of the curve. The national construction industry is in expansion connection (decoupling index is 0.92), showing that the development of the industry is tending towards a coordinated state. Conclusion: There is still a lot of room for China’s construction industry to reduce carbon emission. Each region can refer to the evolution law of decoupling state obtained in this paper, and formulate more efficient carbon reduction measures according to local conditions, which helps the industry achieve green and sustainable development.