Application of a mixture model to assess the effect of measles-mumps-rubella vaccine on the mumps epidemic in children from kindergarten to early school age in Jiangsu Province, China

Abstract

A single dose of the measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) vaccine has been applied in routine immunizations for children in China; however, the Immunoglobulin G (IgG) antibody level of mumps in children from kindergarten to early school age with MMR vaccine immunization history has not been elucidated. This study aimed to describe the immunity profile of children from kindergarten to early school age to identify the susceptible population. In Jiangsu Province, a cross-sectional survey of 4- to 8-year-old children who were vaccinated with at least one dose of MMR vaccine was conducted. IgG antibody results were analyzed by employing both the Enzyme-Linked Immunosorbent Assay (ELISA) cutoff values and the mixture model. A total of 7436 eligible subjects were enrolled: 3386 subjects were in kindergarten, and 4450 were in primary school. The overall seroprevalence (75.4%, 95% CI: 74.4%-76.4%) and Geometric mean concentration (GMC, 201.4U/ml, 95% CI: 194.1–209.4) of mumps antibodies in 2016 were low. The seroprevalence of children in kindergarten (78.1%, 95% CI: 76.6%-79.4%) was significantly higher than that of children in primary school (73.2%, 95% CI: 71.2%-74.6%). The GMC was negatively correlated with the time of inoculation (F = 32.17, P = 0.002). The mixture model enables a more comprehensive understanding of serological results by investigating four levels of antibody response, suggesting that there is a small fraction of the population with waning immunity. Children in kindergarten and primary school whom had received one dose of MMR vaccine were at a higher risk of mumps infection, particularly the 7-year-old group in the central region. Therefore, the single-dose MMR vaccine schedule has a limited impact on mumps control and prevention, and a two-dose MMR vaccine schedule should be introduced.