Reliability and safety analysis using fault tree and Bayesian networks

Abstract

Fault tree analysis (FTA) is one of the most prominent techniques used in risk analysis, this method aimed to identify how component failures lead to system failure using logical gates (i.e. AND, OR gates). However, some limitations appear on FTA due to its static structure. Bayesian networks (BNs) have become a popular technique used in reliability analysis; it represents a set of random variables and their conditional dependencies. This paper discusses the advantages of Bayesian networks over fault tree in reliability and safety analysis. Also, it shows the ability of BN to update probabilities, to represent multi-state variables, dependent failures, and common cause failure. An example taken from the literature is used to illustrate the application and compare the results of both fault tree and bayesian networks techniques.