Multi-Objective Land Use Optimization Based on NSGA-II and PLUS Models: Balancing Economic Development and Carbon Neutrality Goals

Abstract

Land use/land cover (LULC) change constitutes a critical driver influencing regional carbon cycling processes. Optimizing LULC structures represents a significant pathway toward the realization of carbon neutrality. This study takes Liaoning Province as a case area to analyze LULC changes from 2000 to 2020 and to assess their impacts on land use carbon emissions (LUCE) and ecosystem carbon storage (ECS). To accelerate the achievement of carbon neutrality, four development scenarios are established: natural development (ND), low-carbon emission (LCE), high-carbon storage (HCS), and carbon neutrality (CN). For each scenario, corresponding optimization objectives and constraint conditions are defined, and a multi-objective LULC optimization coupling model is formulated to optimize both the quantity structure and spatial pattern of LULC. On this basis, the model quantifies ECS and LUCE under the four scenarios and evaluates the economic value of each scenario and its contribution to the carbon neutrality target. Results indicate the following: (1) From 2000 to 2020, the extensive expansion of construction land resulted in a reduction in ECS by 12.72 × 106 t and an increase in LUCE by 150.44 × 106 t; (2) Compared to the ND scenario, the LCE scenario exhibited the most significant performance in controlling carbon emissions, while the HCS scenario achieved the highest increase in carbon sequestration. The CN scenario showed significant advantages in reducing LUCE, enhancing ECS, and promoting economic growth, achieving a reduction of 0.18 × 106 t in LUCE, an increase of 118.84 × 106 t in ECS, and an economic value gain of 3386.21 × 106 yuan. This study optimizes the LULC structure from the perspective of balancing economic development, LUCE reduction, and ECS enhancement. It addresses the inherent conflict between regional economic growth and ecological conservation, providing scientific evidence and policy insights for promoting LULC optimization and advancing carbon neutrality in similar regions.