Mathematical indices for the influence of risk factors on the lethality of a disease

Abstract

We develop a theoretical model to measure the relative relevance of different pathologies of the lethality of a disease in society. This approach allows a ranking of diseases to be determined, which can assist in establishing priorities for vaccination campaigns or prevention strategies. Among all possible measurements, we identify three families of rules that satisfy a combination of relevant properties: neutrality, irrelevance, and one of three composition concepts. One of these families includes, for instance, the Shapley value of the associated cooperative game. The other two families also include simple and intuitive indices. As an illustration, we measure the relative relevance of several pathologies in lethality due to COVID-19.