Mitigating climate risks in coffee production through agroforestry: global evidence from a systematic review and meta-analysis

Abstract

Background: Climate change presents mounting challenges to coffee systems globally, driving the search for resilient agricultural strategies. Agroforestry has emerged as a promising climate adaptation approach, yet its effectiveness across diverse outcomes and contexts remains uncertain. Objective: To systematically review scientific literature on (i) Climate change impacts on coffee production and (ii) Effectiveness of agroforestry-based adaptation and mitigation strategies using qualitative synthesis and meta-analysis for sustainable coffee cultivation. Methods: Conducted a comprehensive search across 13 databases, screening 3,357 records. Sixty-eight studies (2000–2024) met inclusion criteria, assessing agroforestry impacts under climate-related stressors. Data extraction followed PRISMA 2020 guidelines. A random-effects meta-analysis was conducted on 68 effect sizes categorized into pest/disease incidence, yield loss and quality degradation. Heterogeneity, bias and publication quality were assessed using ROBINS-I and GRADE-CERQual criteria. Results: Agroforestry interventions reduced climate-related yield loss (OR = 0.67 [0.56–0.80], I2 = 0%), pest and disease incidence (OR = 0.79 [0.67–0.95], I2 = 0%) and quality degradation (OR = 0.74 [0.63–0.86], I2 = 0%). The homogeneity across subgroups suggests consistent benefits across agroecological zones. However, most studies lacked PROSPERO registration and conceptual framing. Conclusion: Agroforestry enhances adaptive capacity and farm resilience in coffee systems under climate stress. These effects are consistent across yield, pest and quality outcomes. To support theory-building, future studies should integrate resilience frameworks and improve methodological transparency. Findings provide actionable insights for climate-resilient coffee farming.