An Analytical Approach to Bayesian Evidence Computation

Abstract

Bayesian evidence is a key tool in model selection, allowing a comparison of models with different numbers of parameters. Its use in the analysis of cosmological models has been limited by difficulties in calculating it, with current numerical algorithms requiring supercomputers. In this paper we give exact formulae for the Bayesian evidence in the case of Gaussian likelihoods with arbitrary correlations and top-hat priors, and approximate formulae for the case of likelihood distributions with leading non-Gaussianities (skewness and kurtosis). We apply these formulae to cosmological models with and without isocurvature components, and compare with results we previously obtained using numerical thermodynamic integration. We find that the results are of lower precision than the thermodynamic integration, while still being good enough to be useful.