The macroeconomic burden of hepatitis C and the economic benefit of accelerated investments in China

Abstract

Background: Hepatitis C virus (HCV) poses a significant health and economic burden worldwide, with China bearing a considerable portion of this burden. Chinese treatment coverage remains low, and the full economic implications of achieving these goals are not well understood. Objective: This study aims to evaluate the macroeconomic burden of HCV from 2023 to 2050, as well as the investments required, health benefits, cost-effectiveness, net economic benefit, and the impact on economic growth associated with achieving WHO hepatitis C intervention coverage targets more rapidly during this period. Methods: A dynamic compartmental model was used to simulate the transmission, progression, and cascade of care for HCV patients in China. Intervention costs and healthcare costs were calculated using the cost-of-illness (COI) method. A health-augmented macroeconomic model projected macroeconomic outcomes. Scenarios were developed to evaluate different time points for achieving coverage targets. Results: The projected macroeconomic burden of HCV from 2023 to 2050 is $1.17 trillion. Achieving WHO targets by 2030 is expected to spend $69.72 (95% UI $66.22–$73.68) billion but will avert 0.66(95% UI 0.58–0.74) million hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) cases, and 1.10(95% UI 1.03–1.18) million HCV-related deaths compared to status quo. Faster achievement of coverage targets is associated with investments becoming cost-effective sooner and facilitating greater economic growth. Conclusion: Achieving the WHO Global Health Sector Strategy diagnosis and treatment coverage targets by 2030 in China is projected to be cost-effective and result in significant health and economic benefits. The findings underscore the importance of increased investment in hepatitis C elimination efforts in China.