Silent geographical spread of the H7N9 virus by online knowledge analysis of the live bird trade with a distributed focused crawler

Abstract

Unlike those infected by H5N1, birds infected by the newly discovered H7N9 virus have no observable clinical symptoms. Public health workers in China do not know where the public health threat lies. In this study, we used a distributed focused crawler to analyze online knowledge of the live bird trade in first-wave provinces, namely, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Anhui, and Shanghai, to track the new H7N9 virus and predict its spread. Of the 18 provinces proposed to be at high risk of infection, 10 reported human infections and one had poultry specimens that tested positive. Five provinces (Xinjiang, Yunnan, Guizhou, Shaanxi, and Tibet) as well as Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan were proposed to have no risk of H7N9 virus infection from the live bird trade. These data can help health authorities and the public to respond rapidly to reduce damage related to the spread of the virus.