The Cost of Armed Conflict to Agriculture in Colombia

Abstract

Armed conflict in rural areas of Colombia has displaced and killed many people. This violence increases the risk in the agricultural enterprise leading to reductions in investments and technology adoption that could significantly lower agricultural productivity. To explore the relationship between this violence and productivity of the licit agricultural sector, we estimate an aggregate agricultural production function at the department level for 1995–2017 that includes violence levels and incentives for illicit agriculture. We estimate that the Colombian armed conflict was costly to agriculture because it is associated with a decrease in licit agricultural productivity of around 29% from 1995 to 2017.