Time varying ratings in association football: The all-time greatest team is..

Abstract

Summary: We present a new methodology to estimate time varying team strengths of football teams. Our dynamic model allows for deterministic, rather than stochastic, evolution of team strengths. We use the model to identify the best team in England since the English Football Association was formed and match results were recorded in 1888. Our results suggest that Chelsea in 2007 were stronger than any other team has been but that Manchester United have experienced the period of most dominance.