Realistic Quasi-Biennial Oscillation Variability in Historical and Decadal Hindcast Simulations Using CMIP6 Forcing

Abstract

We analyze the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) variability of historical and decadal hindcast simulations of the MiKlip (Mittelfristige Klimavorhersagen) decadal prediction system using the higher resolved version of the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model. We find a realistic variability of the QBO in historical simulations when changing from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) external forcing. This agreement between the simulated and the observed QBO is improved by the initialization of decadal hindcast simulations with CMIP6 forcing in the first three lead years. In the decadal hindcast simulations, the agreement is similar to a persistence forecast in the first five lead years and higher than the persistence forecast in the later lead years. We find a strong relation between the QBO and the ozone variability in the stratosphere and conclude that the change of the ozone data from CMIP5 to CMIP6 leads to the improved QBO variability and prediction skill in our simulations.