A model for energy master planning and resilience assessment of net-zero emissions community

Abstract

New community-scale developments should address both greenhouse gas emissions mitigation and climate adaptation goals. This paper presents a systematic approach to energy master planning (EMP) of net-zero emissions communities via probabilistic analysis of the resilience and cost effectiveness of various energy provision portfolios (supply, conversion and storage) in early design stage. Applied in the EMP of a new university satellite campus, comprising of five buildings with mixed energy uses, both the 2050 net-zero emissions and the energy resilience objectives are met by an energy provision portfolio that consists of air source heat pumps for heating and cooling, and a combination of PV panels, purchased green power, standard (non-green) grid power, battery and thermal heat and cold storage tanks–with only a modest 6% increase in costs compared to a reference solution. The case project demonstrates the financial feasibility of a resilient energy system that also meets a net-zero emissions objective.