Novel HPV Associated Oropharyngeal Squamous Cell Carcinoma Surveillance DNA Assay Cost Analysis

Abstract

Objectives: We aim to propose a modified surveillance strategy using a novel blood assay that detects plasma circulating tumor-specific HPV DNA with reported 100% NPV and 94% PPV as the main method of detection to understand the cost implications of potentially avoiding routine imaging and surveillance visits at our institution. Methods: We performed a retrospective chart review focusing on recurrences in p16+ patients with OPSCC and defined two surveillance strategies: “Strategy A", follow-up visits with flexible laryngoscopy (FL) plus regular imaging studies; “Strategy B", follow-up visits with FL plus regular NavDx assays and imaging used at the discretion of the physician(s) in cases of high clinical suspicion. Results: Of the p16+ OPSCC patients (n = 214), 23 had confirmed recurrence (11%). Standard work-flow model determined 72 imaging studies and 2198 physical examinations with FL were needed to detect one recurrence. Potential individual patient cost reduction during surveillance was 42%. Conclusion: Implementing NavDx for HPV + OPSCC surveillance would benefit patients by reducing costs and unnecessary diagnostic testing. Level of Evidence: Step/Level 3 Laryngoscope, 133:3006–3012, 2023.