Spatio-Temporal Changes in Extreme Rainfall Events Over Different Indian River Basins

Abstract

During recent decades, India experienced more frequent and severe floods due to increasing extreme rainfall events over different Indian River Basins (IRBs). The present study uses Generalized Extreme Value distribution, Expert Team on Climate Change and Detection Indices, and Standardized Precipitation Index to examine the trend in extreme rainfall events over the IRBs using long-term observed high-resolution gridded rainfall data (1901-2019) obtained from India Meteorological Department. The analysis depicts a marked shifting trend in extreme rainfall events from northeastern Indian river basins toward the western Indian river basins during the recent decades of 1981-2019. The spatial variations in the annual maximum rainfall for the 10-, 30-, and 100-year return levels show statistically significant increasing trends over the IRBs. The observed decadal changes of rainfall during wet and dry conditions showed the shifting and increasing (15%–58.74%) pattern in extreme rainfall events during the last decades of the 20th and current twenty first century over the west-flowing river basins. This research highlights the significant increasing trend in extreme rainfall events, which may pose a grave risk to agriculture, human life, and infrastructure, predominantly on the vulnerable sections of the society.