Are our lands getting wetter or drier? A perspective from Climate scenario data in Upper Brantas

Abstract

Changes in rainfall are considered influential for sustaining the land resources in tropical agriculture. Many areas in East Java are classified as top priorities in adaptation and mitigation programs, especially in the agricultural and water resources sectors. Climate change impacts have been documented through global-scale General Circular Models (GCM). This study examined the future estimated climate generated from the CMIP5 model of the globe's climate of four greenhouse gas scenarios in the Brantas Hulu watershed and studied the consequences for the agricultural climate suitability. The study exploited the 18 climate calculation models at the regional level by focusing on RCP 4.5, the development scenario considered in Indonesia's climate action. During the 2000-2099 predictions, temperature and precipitation increased in all models. If this increase continues to be experienced without efforts for proper mitigation and adaptation plans, the disruption in agricultural products might pose a major consequence for food security.