Dynamic system sustainability simulation modelling

Abstract

Assessing the sustainability of dynamic, open and complex systems with many stakeholders, interrelated components and interactions and forecasting with traditional study methods is a very complicated and has its limitations. The aim of the paper is to create a simulation model for sustainability of a dynamic system in order to assess and forecast the sustainability of the system under alternative development scenarios. The Cesis Palace complex as a tourism site in Latvia was used in the paper for an example of a dynamic system. The result of the work is a computer model that provides an opportunity to assess the sustainability of real-life system and its dimensions. The author concludes that three key factors need to be taken into account in order to improve the model: methodology for evaluating model indicators, data security and integrity and usage of machine learning in simulation modelling.