Epidemiology, seasonality, and predictors of outcome of aids-associated penicillium marneffei infection in Ho Chi Minh City, Viet Nam

Abstract

Background. Penicillium marneffei is an important human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-associated opportunistic pathogen in Southeast Asia. The epidemiology and the predictors of penicilliosis outcome are poorly understood. Methods. We performed a retrospective study of culture-confirmed incident penicilliosis admissions during 1996-2009 at the Hospital for Tropical Diseases in Ho Chi Minh City, Viet Nam. Seasonality of penicilliosis was assessed using cosinor models. Logistic regression was used to assess predictors of death or worsening disease based on 10 predefined covariates, and Cox regression was performed to model time-to-antifungal initiation. Results. A total of 795 patients were identified; hospital charts were obtainable for 513 patients (65%). Cases increased exponentially and peaked in 2007 (156 cases), mirroring the trends in AIDS admissions during the study period. A highly significant seasonality for penicilliosis (P