Uncertainty analysis of dynamic thermal rating based on environmental parameter estimation

Abstract

Dynamic thermal rating (DTR) of transmission lines is related to wind speed, wind direction, ambient temperature, and so on. Among the environmental parameters, there is a difference between the obtained environmental parameters and the true value. Therefore, only the deterministic values of environmental parameters and DTR are not accurate enough. Considering the environmental parameters obtained with uncertainty, the uncertainty of environment parameters based on Monte Carlo Method (MCM) is studied in this paper. According to the heat balance equation of transmission lines, the uncertainty analysis of transmission line ampacity is realized based on CIGRE standard. The best estimation value, standard uncertainty, and confidence interval are obtained under a given confidence level of environmental parameters. The experimental results show that DTR can fully improve the transmission capacity of transmission lines, and MCM is an effective method to assess uncertainty of DTR.