The Urban Thermal Environment of a Climate Change Hotspot: High-Resolution Modelling of Nicosia, Cyprus

Abstract

Abstract: Urban areas in the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East (EMME) region face multiple challenges from climate change, including rapidly rising temperatures, declining precipitation, and increasing extreme weather events. High-resolution modeling is essential to capture localized climate impacts and support effective mitigation strategies. This study utilizes the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, coupled with the Single-Layer Urban Canopy Model (SLUCM), to examine the urban environment of Nicosia, Cyprus, at a 1kmx1km spatial resolution for 2008–2012. The analysis incorporates the CGLC-MODIS-LCZ dataset, which combines the Copernicus Global Land Service Land Cover (CGLC) product, the MODIS IGBP classes, and the concept of Local Climate Zones (LCZs). Key variables, including 2-m air temperature (T2), 2-m relative humidity (RH), and land surface temperature (LST), are evaluated against in-situ and satellite observations at diurnal, monthly, seasonal, and annual scales. The results reveal pronounced differences across LCZs, with the densely built LCZ exhibiting higher daily minimum air temperature (T2min), the lowest RH values, and elevated LST during nighttime. Conversely, the sparsely built LCZ shows lower T2min and significantly higher daily minimum and maximum relative humidity (RHmin and RHmax). Daily maximum temperature (T2max) displays minimal variation across LCZs. The urban signature is particularly pronounced in LST during nighttime, while a cool island effect is evident for LST during daytime. Model performance shows the lowest biases during summer and the highest during winter. These findings underscore the importance of localized urban modeling for addressing climate change impacts and informing mitigation strategies in cities.