Carbon Capture in Indonesia’s Energy Sector: A Least-Cost Optimization Approach

Abstract

Indonesia’s power sector is heavily reliant on coal, making it a major contributor to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This study evaluates the role of carbon capture (CC) as a transitional mitigation strategy using the Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP) for least-cost optimization. Five scenarios up to 2060 are assessed: Business as Usual (BAU), a renewables-only pathway (NRE), two carbon-capture strategies (CALL and CNEW), and a hybrid scenario (COMB). Results show that NRE eliminates fossil power plants but increases system costs by 3.2% and raises reliability challenges due to the variability of solar generation. CALL achieves the lowest abatement cost (USD 0.93/tCO2e) but leaves 105 Mt CO2e residual emissions by 2060. COMB provides the most balanced outcome, cutting emissions by 96% (40 Mt CO2e), increasing costs by only 1.9%, and ensuring energy security by combining CC with renewable expansion. These findings highlight that a hybrid strategy offers a pragmatic, least-cost pathway for Indonesia to align its power sector with net-zero targets while maintaining grid adequacy.