The Study of Adaptive Planning Application for LNG Regasification Terminal Infrastructure in Indonesia

Abstract

Global trade for regasification LNG has reached 850.1 MTPA by February 2021 because of the enforcement of clean energy applications. The alternative of renewable energy such as hydropower, solar, and wind has developed globally, but they have not been implemented effectively in Indonesia. LNG became an alternative to clean energy because of its low carbon emissions. An estimated 26% of the 35,000 MW of Indonesia's electricity supply project comes from natural gas-powered power plants. The scope of this study is to investigate the implementation of adaptive planning for LNG regasification facilities. The authors interview the LNG experts in Indonesia to assess uncertainties, vulnerabilities, and opportunities in its business process to identify the enabling factors for implementing the adaptive method in LNG terminal master planning. This research aims to provide an adaptive strategy for LNG Regasification Terminal to satisfy resilient and sustainable infrastructure concepts. The authors propose the Real Options Analysis using a binomial decision tree to evaluate the decision-making under uncertainty for the infrastructure LNG regasification terminal facilities. The study case for category medium to large scale with 4 MTPA, FSRU concept selected as the suitable configuration, while for the smaller scale facilities with 0.5 MTPA, the FSU with regasification barge selected as the most suitable configuration.