Assessment of air thermal conditions in the lowland part of south-western Poland for agriculture development purposes

Abstract

The recognition of changes in the course of agricultural thermal periods is vital when it comes to determining appropriate measures for adapting agriculture to climate change. The present study examined changes in air temperature between 1951 and 2014 in the area of south-western Poland. A statistically significant, positive linear trend was confirmed for the annual average temperature, seasonal averages, and monthly averages in the periods spanning February-May and July-August. From the beginning of the 21st century, the period of winter dormancy of plants started increasingly later; farming and plant vegetation periods started increasingly earlier, and the period of active plant growth was prolonged. Among the considered agricultural periods, the growing season was the most prolonged. The duration of the farming period was also significantly longer, but the winter dormancy period was shortened. The negative linear trend of days when the temperature stood at < 0 °C was statistically confirmed for temperature in the entire region and most of the stations. In terms of predicting the consequences of the changes that were observed today over the next decades, this is not an easy task. However, the nature of these changes suggests that further cultivation of winter crops may require far-reaching adaptation measures.